06.28.10
Posted in Financials, Globalstar, ICO/DBSD, LightSquared, Operators, Regulatory, Spectrum, TerreStar at 1:32 pm by timfarrar
The President has now announced his support for the proposal set out in the FCC’s National Broadband Plan (NBP) to free up 500MHz of spectrum for wireless broadband over the next decade. However, even though “Our nation’s ability to lead the world in innovation and technology is threatened by the lack of sufficient spectrum for wireless broadband applications and services” according to the FCC, it doesn’t necessarily mean that spectrum will prove to be a good investment over the next few years. (In this analysis, we’re looking at the opportunity for financial investors, as opposed to cellular operators – just like in the housing market, if you intend to use your spectrum, then that’s a different proposition from planning to flip it to someone else).
Indeed it is highly desirable from the FCC’s point of view that spectrum should become cheaper rather than more expensive, because that will enable more competition in the wireless market and result in lower prices for consumers. In the absence of lower prices for spectrum, it is likely that some cellular operators will be shut out entirely from 4G, or will be forced to merge with competitors in order to combine their spectrum holdings – not the outcome that the FCC wants to see. The FCC also doesn’t want to reward speculators – it would much prefer spectrum to be put to use, rather than see financial investors lock it up with a view to profiting from higher prices in the future. Although some might argue that the FCC also needs to raise money from auctions (not least to fund the buildout of public safety networks), it is far from clear that such motivations will weigh heavily in the FCC’s decisions (even if some members of Congress disagree). Certainly the concept of maximizing the proceeds of future auctions was not emphasized in the NBP.
From a historical perspective, despite this apparent crisis, spectrum prices in the US (on a per MHzPOP basis) are actually far lower than a decade ago. This is entirely logical: if it now takes 50MHz+ of spectrum to support $30 of monthly data services, whereas ten years ago operators required only 20MHz of spectrum to provide $50 of monthly voice services, then cellular operators simply can’t produce the same ROI from each MHz of spectrum as they did in the past.
Just the objective of freeing up 500MHz of spectrum (almost doubling the amount currently available for terrestrial cellular service) alone is likely to put a damper on spectrum prices. In recent months, we have also seen the FCC moving rapidly to finalize rules to enable use of 25MHz of WCS spectrum, and formulate policies to ensure that 90MHz of MSS-ATC spectrum is put to use. In addition, the FCC may also decide to limit the amount of additional spectrum that AT&T and Verizon (who accounted for the vast majority of spending during the 700MHz auction in 2008) can acquire in the future.
In my view, all of these developments point to lower spectrum prices in the next few years. In the short term, prices will be depressed further by the glut of spectrum owners seeking to monetize their holdings at the moment: Harbinger, Clearwire, NextWave and other MSS operators, to name just a few. This comes at a time when there is a relative lack of buyers, with most analysts hard pressed to name anyone other than T-Mobile that is an obvious partner for these companies. Investors who acquired undervalued spectrum assets a few years ago (particularly if that was prior to recent rule changes) may be OK, but new investors will need to be more cautious about the price they pay for these assets.
In summary, even if there is considerable long term demand for spectrum, it is a fallacy to equate this with increasing prices. In that regard, spectrum is like oil: you know there will be more demand in the future, but that tells you nothing about how the price will move in the next year or two. The short term price (and indeed the price in auctions) is determined by the balance of demand and supply today. That alone is a negative sign for investors in spectrum assets. However, when the FCC (unlike OPEC) would also prefer to see lower prices for spectrum, then it certainly looks like a risky bet to assume that prices will go higher anytime soon.
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06.21.10
Posted in Globalstar, ICO/DBSD, Inmarsat, LightSquared, Operators, Regulatory, Spectrum, TerreStar at 2:36 pm by timfarrar
On Friday, the FCC’s Spectrum Task Force announced a “plan to increase value, utilization, and investment in mobile satellite service (MSS) bands”, beginning with a Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) which they hope to approve at the Commission meeting scheduled for July 15.
Although the announcement itself referred to the whole 90MHz of MSS spectrum identified in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) as suitable for terrestrial broadband, the focus of the discussion at Friday’s press conference appeared to be around the 2GHz (S-band) spectrum. Indeed the FCC highlighted that this spectrum, which is held by DBSD and TerreStar, is “right in the neighborhood of both the AWS spectrum and the PCS spectrum”. In particular, the FCC indicated that it would propose changing the table of allocation for the 2GHz spectrum, to allow primary terrestrial use (without ATC), and then enable secondary leasing for all three MSS spectrum bands. These rules would enable secondary leasing to begin “relatively soon”, if the FCC agreed to the proposal of the Spectrum Task Force.
According to Communications Daily, this proposal might include “charges”, presumably as “consideration for the step-up in the value of the affected spectrum” (as proposed in the NBP), but would avoid some of the delays associated with an incentive auction (which was one of the other options suggested in the NBP). Of course spectrum leasing for purely terrestrial use (as would then be possible in the 2GHz band) would be rather more straightforward than leasing under the current set of ATC restrictions, but the level of any FCC “charges” (and perhaps other conditions on terrestrial buildout or provision of satellite services) would dictate how much value could be realized by the existing spectrum holders.
What is particularly interesting is that this NPRM is being issued so quickly, when the Credit Suisse research conference call three weeks ago indicated that it was not expected until September. In addition, the NBP suggested that an S-band (2GHz) Order would not be expected until 2011 (as opposed to 2010 for the L-band and Big LEO bands), at least partly because decisions might be impacted by the outcome of the adjacent AWS-3 band proceeding.
Perhaps the reason for this change in timing is hinted at by the first line in the FCC’s announcement: the need to “increase…investment in MSS bands”. Certainly both Echostar and TerreStar were well prepared with immediate comments on the announcement (with Echostar also noting that the proposed change would “help spur investment”), and TerreStar desperately needs new investment in the very near future. It looks like the outcome of the FCC meeting in July (which according to Friday’s press conference is “still in flux”) might therefore prove critical to TerreStar’s future.
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02.24.10
Posted in Financials, Globalstar, ICO/DBSD, Inmarsat, LightSquared, Operators, Regulatory, Spectrum, TerreStar at 11:32 am by timfarrar
So the cat is out of the bag. As we noted last December, the FCC has been looking hard at how to make sure MSS spectrum is put to productive uses, and now in a speech by Chairman Genachowski, he has stated that the Plan will propose a Mobile Future Auction “permitting existing spectrum licensees, such as television broadcasters in spectrum-starved markets, to voluntarily relinquish spectrum in exchange for a share of auction proceeds, and allow spectrum sharing and other spectrum efficiency measures”. Specifically:
“The Plan proposes resolving longstanding debates about how to maximize the value of spectrum in bands such as the Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) or Wireless Communications Service (WCS) by giving licensees the option of new flexibility to put the spectrum toward mobile broadband use-or the option of voluntarily transferring the license to someone else, who will.”
It is going to be very interesting to see whether this “new flexibility” involves further liberalizing the regulations governing ATC, over what would undoubtedly be the heated objections of existing wireless carriers (who have always had a problem with potential “windfalls” for MSS spectrum holders). For example, would the FCC contemplate removing the requirement that all terminals must include satellite capability and offer a dual mode service (similar to the European S-band licenses which do not include any such restrictions)? Presumably any such carrot might come with a corresponding “use it or lose it” stick, although if an operator chose to stay with MSS-only services, it is hard to imagine that any third party could use the spectrum for terrestrial services at the same time.
However, MSS operators will certainly now be faced with a choice: do they continue to bet that (what conceivably might be more liberalized) ATC is the best way forward, and hope they can either partner with a leading wireless operator or attract investors to a new entrant wireless business plan, or do they agree to return their spectrum to the FCC in exchange for a share of the proceeds in the proposed Mobile Future Auction? The rest of this year will certainly be filled with many twists and turns in the MSS sector as we see which way operators will jump.
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12.07.09
Posted in ICO/DBSD, LightSquared, Operators, Regulatory, Services, Spectrum, TerreStar at 10:41 am by timfarrar
On Friday Dec 4 we attended an FCC discussion of the National Broadband Plan here in Menlo Park, at which Carlos Kirjner and Blair Levin presented on various issues being addressed in development of the National Broadband Plan. The most interesting part of the presentation was the assertion that “at least 150MHz” of TV spectrum could be freed up by relocating over the air TV broadcasters to a smaller portion of the UHF band “while keeping all major channels on the air”.
Its been widely discussed how the broadcasters might be incentivized to move, perhaps by offering them a share of the future auction proceeds, so at the end of the presentation I asked if a similar arrangement would be available for other spectrum bands, such as MSS. Blair Levin confirmed that other bands, including MSS-ATC spectrum, were also under review and that historic band allocations may no longer be optimal to meet future wireless spectrum demand. As part of the FCC’s review of Harbinger’s proposed purchase of SkyTerra, the FCC has also asked some very detailed questions about SkyTerra’s progress towards an ATC deal, and the discussions that they have had with different parties.
Will the National Broadband Plan provide an alternative way for MSS operators such as SkyTerra, ICO/DBSD and TerreStar to monetize their spectrum, as it does not look like any of these operators are going to move forward with ATC deployment in the near future? Globalstar’s ATC lease agreement with Open Range is seeing more progress, but is limited to a few million rural consumers (and the Open Range terrestrial rollout is being supported by USDA loan guarantees).
Certainly in the 2GHz band (unlike the L-band) there are no existing satellite services which would prevent operators returning their spectrum to the FCC for re-auction. The National Broadband Plan is due to be published in February 2010, so we will soon see whether the FCC is going to come up with a plan to make sure that MSS spectrum is put to use in terrestrial networks in a more timely manner.
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07.20.09
Posted in Financials, ICO/DBSD, Operators, Spectrum, TerreStar at 3:20 pm by timfarrar
On July 9, DISH Network filed a letter in the ICO North America (DBSD) bankruptcy case, indicating that it had purchased all of the $43.7M of first lien secured debt from the pre-petition lenders.
The first lien lenders had been objecting to ICO’s proposed restructuring which their financial advisers (Chanin Capital Partners) characterized as “a ‘plan’ that is doomed to fail, due to lack of financing, overwhelming debt and inability to move the company from the developmental (non-revenue producing) stage into an operating, revenue producing one”, while DISH Network stated in its letter that it “adopts those objections in their entirety and is prepared to prosecute the objections…”
According to Chanin, ICO/DBSD’s plan “seeks to put the Debtors in a holding pattern in the hope that the capital markets will become more accessible in the future. During this time the Debtors have no intention of furthering their business”.
However, with Echostar already holding a significant stake in TerreStar, ICO’s 2GHz rival, which just launched its own satellite earlier this month, could this development provide renewed impetus to the long rumored merger of the two companies and provide an alternative way forward for the development of MSS and ATC services in the 2GHz band?
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07.01.09
Posted in Financials, Globalstar, Handheld, ICO/DBSD, Inmarsat, Iridium, LightSquared, Operators, Services, Spectrum, TerreStar at 10:25 am by timfarrar
With apologies to the Eagles…its a lovely place, for MSS consumers at least. However, for MSS operators it seems to be somewhere you can check out [or go bankrupt] anytime you like, but you can never leave.
Today we’ve seen confirmation that Globalstar is now fully funded to complete the construction and launch of its first 24 second generation satellites by the end of 2010, while TerreStar has launched its new S-band satellite from Kourou, French Guiana and intends to initiate commercial services at the end of this year. Iridium also looks increasingly likely to complete its deal with GHL, since GHL’s shares and warrants are now trading well above the $10 value that would be refunded to investors if they voted down the deal. While there has been much speculation about potential mergers in the last two years, these now look less, rather than more, likely to occur in the near future (with the sole exception of SkyTerra’s Harbinger-backed bid for Inmarsat, which should be decided one way or another later this year).
Thus by early 2011, it looks like we will have at least four and more likely six voice and data MSS systems providing service in North America (Inmarsat, Iridium, Globalstar and TerreStar plus ICO and SkyTerra) and four systems (Inmarsat, Iridium, Globalstar and Thuraya) providing service in most of the rest of the world. With new advanced satellites, consumers will benefit from improved data capabilities and smaller, cheaper handheld satellite phones.
However, the development of at least three new systems (ICO, TerreStar and SkyTerra) and to some extent Globalstar as well (based on financial analysts’ comments at the time of its IPO in November 2006) has been justified largely by the value of MSS spectrum, due to the FCC’s rules enabling deployment of Ancillary Terrestrial Components (ATC), rather than by the intrinsic potential of the market for mobile satellite services itself. Thus, unless and until demand for MSS spectrum and ATC materializes, we run the risk of overcapacity for land-based MSS services, particularly in North America. This will certainly benefit end users, and price reductions (especially in conjunction with cheaper, more attractive terminals) may help to stimulate significant market growth, but it remains to be seen whether this will enable all the MSS operators to deliver a return for their investors or whether we’ll see more of them “checking out” with a bankruptcy filing as ICO North America did in May this year.
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06.29.09
Posted in Financials, ICO/DBSD, Operators, Regulatory, Spectrum, TerreStar at 9:23 am by timfarrar
In a recent Report and Order, released on June 12, 2009, the FCC addressed the issue of when ICO and TerreStar can offer commercial service in North America, which has been delayed by the need to clear their uplink band (2000-2020MHz) of existing Broadcast Auxiliary Service (BAS) users, who are being transitioned to frequencies above 2025MHz. In the Order, the FCC removed the requirement that ICO and TerreStar must wait until all of the top 30 broadcast markets have been transitioned before they can launch service. However, ICO and TerreStar will have to coordinate with BAS users if they are to operate in uncleared markets, and Sprint Nextel now has until February 8, 2010 to complete the transition. As a result, though TerreStar intends to begin offering service in late 2009, it looks likely that national service will not be available until several months later.
More importantly, as part of the order, the FCC initiated a Further Notice of Proposed Rule Making (FNPRM) related to the sharing of costs for the BAS transition (which Sprint Nextel has paid but is seeking to reclaim from other operators who will use the spectrum). The FCC “tentatively conclude[d] that MSS operators and future AWS licensees will have an obligation to share, on a pro rata basis, in the costs associated with the relocation of BAS incumbents if they “enter the band??? prior to the BAS sunset date of December 9, 2013″ and “tentatively conclude[d] that an MSS operator “enters the band??? and thus incurs an obligation to share in the costs associated with relocation of BAS incumbents when its satellite is found operational under its authorization milestone”. In April 2009, Sprint Nextel estimated these costs at $100M each for ICO and TerreStar. ICO and TerreStar have previously argued that they should not be liable for any of these transition costs, so if confirmed, the FCC’s tentative conclusions would be a significant additional cost for both companies. However, it is uncertain if the recent bankruptcy of ICO North America will affect Sprint Nextel’s claim, including whether the ICO Global parent company (which was not part of the bankruptcy filing) will avoid this liability.
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05.15.09
Posted in Financials, ICO/DBSD, Spectrum at 2:49 pm by timfarrar
Is this deja vu all over again for the MSS industry? ICO North America has filed for bankruptcy, and plans to turn over almost all of its equity to the convertible debt holders who would have been due for repayment of $767.6M in August. ICO North America has an S-band GEO satellite in orbit, which it launched in April 2008, and had planned to develop a mobile video service for cars which it referred to as MIM. However, these plans were put on hold while the company renegotiated its debts.
There is a distinction between ICO North America, now referring to itself as DBSD, and its parent company, ICO Global, which is not filing for bankruptcy. ICO Global is responsible for a MEO satellite system, whose first satellite was launched back in 2001, although the system was never completed. Though ICO maintains it has a legacy claim to spectrum rights in the S-band on a global basis, the European Commission decided yesterday that it would instead award European spectrum licenses to the Inmarsat and Solaris Mobile. ICO Global’s main asset is the judgment of $631M that it was awarded against Boeing in January this year, after a trial in which ICO blamed Boeing for its inability to complete the MEO system. ICO has not yet collected this judgment, which Boeing has appealed, and ICO has estimated it could take two years for the matter to be resolved.
ICO Global was under no obligation to share any of the Boeing judgment with the ICO North America convertible debt holders, but could have presumably cut a different deal if had wanted to keep a bigger share in ICO North America’s assets and give up some of the potential future litigation proceeds. Clearly ICO Global has therefore decided that these potential future litigation proceeds are more valuable than the share of the GEO satellite and spectrum assets that it could have obtained in exchange for them. That may be good news for ICO Global’s shareholders, since there are about 200M shares outstanding, implying the potential future litigation proceeds are equivalent to $3 per share (compared to a current trading price of $0.60) if Boeing’s appeal is unsuccessful. However, it doesn’t help the prospects for ATC if Craig McCaw, one of the savviest spectrum investors around, believes that ICO North America’s satellite and spectrum assets aren’t worth more than the $767M owed to its convertible debt holders. Our view continues to be that the ATC spectrum will eventually be put to use in terrestrial networks, the problem is just that ‘eventually’ might be quite a long time.
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05.14.09
Posted in Financials, ICO/DBSD, Inmarsat, Regulatory, Spectrum, TerreStar at 2:07 pm by timfarrar
The European Commission has announced the result of the S-band MSS selection process: as expected the two winners are Solaris Mobile and Inmarsat, with ICO and TerreStar’s applications rejected.
In response to the announcement, Inmarsat said it was “delighted to be the recipient” and “will look to pursue the commercial partnerships necessary to ensure that the returns from the required investment in our S-band programme will generate acceptable returns on capital without undue risks or uncertainties”.
However, it may not have much time to establish these partnerships, since the EC has stated that “within 30 working days of the publication of the list of selected applicants they shall inform the Commission in case they do not intend to use the radio frequencies”. If applicants decide to move forward (i.e. do not return the license) then they “will be bound by the commitments that they have undertaken, including commitments made concerning consumer and competitive benefits and geographic coverage” and all new systems must have “development and deployment completed” by May 2011 “at the latest”. A two year deadline for deployment is extremely tight, and Inmarsat would have to start spending serious money in the very near future (probably close to $100M in the next 12 months and $300M over the next two years) to complete and launch a satellite in this timeframe.
It will be very interesting to see if Inmarsat can find partners to come up with this amount of money (or enter into some alternative form of capacity purchase contracts) in the next 30 days. Given that Solaris already has a satellite in orbit (albeit with more limited coverage) and has not yet announced any meaningful capacity commitments, it would be quite a surprise if Inmarsat was successful, especially in the midst of an economic downturn.
It remains unclear what sanctions the EC can impose on operators who fail to live up to their “commitments” and ultimately do not complete an S-band satellite on the promised schedule. We would have thought it unlikely that fines or other monetary penalties would be imposed, but coming a day after Intel was fined more than 1 billion Euros by the EC’s Competition Directorate, this may not be a good time to get on the wrong side of the Commission.
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04.30.09
Posted in Globalstar, ICO/DBSD, Inmarsat, Iridium, LightSquared, Spectrum, TerreStar at 10:44 am by timfarrar
On Monday, the Wall St Journal revealed that Harbinger plans to push ahead with “a multibillion-dollar plan to build an international satellite-cellphone business” which would “complement existing cellular networks with satellite coverage, and…use new chips that could fit inside affordable, mainstream phones, keeping costs down for consumers”. This is quite different from the original plan of SkyTerra, TerreStar and ICO to build out Ancillary Terrestrial Components (ATCs) – basically a new terrestrial cellphone network using their satellite frequencies. Instead, subscribers will simply rely on their existing cellphone networks and only use the satellite services of these companies as a roaming partner when they are in uncovered areas. From that perspective, the new plan is much more similar to the business plans of Iridium and Globalstar in the late 1990s, that business travelers would rely on satellite networks to fill in the gaps in cellular coverage. For example, here’s a description from the Economist in June 1998:
“By far the largest number of subscribers is likely to come from the “cellular roaming” market. These are users of land-based cellular phones who want to be able to extend the range of their handsets when they are travelling through areas of poor or incompatible coverage. MSS subscribers will be equipped with a dual-standard phone that will switch to a satellite when a ground connection is unavailable (Iridium’s first offering is a soon-to-be-superseded $3,000 half-kilogram brick). Subscribers will pay a higher standing charge to their normal cellular operator and a premium on MSS calls. Numbering will not change and unified billing will be standard. This week Iridium said it had recruited 200 distribution partners among cellular companies.”
Of course there are many advantages that the new and very capable satellites being built by SkyTerra and TerreStar will offer over the 1990s technology of Iridium and Globalstar. Most obviously, the extra power and sensitivity of their satellites will allow the satellite service to be added to mainstream cellphones with little or no penalty in size and weight, as opposed to the ‘brick’-sized handsets produced by Iridium and Globalstar in 1998 and 1999. In addition, SkyTerra, TerreStar and ICO have signed agreements with Qualcomm to incorporate satellite technology into Qualcomm’s next generation cellular chipsets, which are likely to be used in a wide range of handsets.
However, there is a major difference between the principal sources of revenue for an ATC and a satellite roaming business plan. In the ATC case, a cellular operator would pay to lease the satellite spectrum to provide terrestrial services over a new terrestrial base station network, thereby enabling it to add capacity or new broadband services to its network. Satellite services, while available, would be a minor component of the overall revenue stream for the satellite operator. On the other hand, a satellite roaming business plan relies on the satellite services themselves to generate revenue, with perhaps some incremental benefit to the cellular partner through reduced churn, if the satellite service is sufficiently compelling to subscribers.
Even more importantly, the decision maker who will produce these revenue streams is very different: in the ATC case, it is simply a matter of convincing the cellular operator to lease the spectrum, whereas in the satellite roaming case, the end user must decide to buy the satellite service. Many people who were intimately involved in the launch of Iridium and Globalstar’s services remain convinced that it will be very difficult to explain the limitations of satellite service to a mass market: those services were sold as enabling coverage “anywhere”, and so there were numerous complaints about the inability of satellite service to work reliably in buildings, cars and urban areas. For most people, their experience of cellphone coverage limitations is in precisely these areas: in the Bay Area there are 375K riders of BART each WEEKDAY (where coverage in the underground parts of the transit system has only recently started to be deployed) compared to less than 200K visitors to Pinnacles National Monument each year (the location where we most recently spent an extended period of time outside cellular coverage). Remember also that even the new phones almost certainly won’t switch beween terrestrial and satellite modes in the middle of a call, so will likely drop an ongoing call if the user moves through a cellular (or satellite) deadzone. As the Wall St Journal explained in July 1999:
“At its core, Iridium is struggling with an incongruity between its design and its market ambitions. It was originally intended for millions of globe-trotting business travelers, and it was launched with a $180 million world advertising campaign last year aimed at that market. But when Motorola began operating the system on Nov. 1, the Iridium handsets weren’t powerful enough to work within buildings or urban areas. As a result, a vast network intended for a mass market was usable only by niche groups, such as mariners, oil-rig workers or the military. Iridium faces a tough struggle to cover its huge costs in such relatively small markets.”
Indeed there are about 150,000 Iridium and Globalstar satellite phone subscribers within these niche markets in North America at the moment, generating about $100M in retail service revenues per year (excluding international users like the DoD). New smaller, cheaper handsets from SkyTerra and TerreStar should increase the size of this “professional” MSS niche significantly (including amongst “police, fire and ambulance personnel”). In addition, a low cost “satellite backup” service might appeal to several million consumers, particularly in earthquake or hurricane-prone areas such as California or the Gulf Coast, if it is explained properly: as an emergency service for use outdoors in the event that other communications are unavailable. In order to achieve this level of take-up, cellular carriers will not only have to sign roaming deals with the satellite networks, but also ensure that satellite connectivity is included in the phones they sell and support large scale distribution of the phones themselves. Even then, it may be hard to explain properly: there were reports after Hurricane Katrina that first responders were unable to get their satellite phones to work, and it was later discovered that some were trying to use the phones in a basement conference room or inside the Superdome. Although gaining several million subscribers would be a great achievement for the MSS sector, in view of these challenges we remain skeptical that there will ever be “vast global demand for the network [Harbinger] envisions”.
In contrast, we are more positive about the long term potential of ATC: cellular operators will ultimately need more spectrum to cope with the surge in wireless broadband data demand and will use up the stockpiles of 700MHz and AWS spectrum which they have purchased in recent years. At that time ATC will be one of the most obvious sources of supplementary spectrum, and there is no technical reason why it can’t be made to work. Indeed many of the developments being put in place to enable satellite roaming (such as the Qualcomm chipset) are precisely those needed as a pre-requisite for ATC deployment. The only problem is how long it may take before major cellular operators feel a pressing need to use MSS spectrum for their terrestrial operations – it is likely to be several years off at a minimum. Indeed, if WiMAX struggles, then Clearwire’s spectrum may be sold off to other players, pushing out the timeframe in which ATC might be considered even further into the future.
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