11.04.26
Prepare for the Musk vs Bezos cage fight (Oct 28)
Below is a copy of the note I first published on X/Twitter on Oct 28, 2026, but at the time I was unable to add here:
Much of the talk at yesterday’s Satellite Innovation conference in Mountain View, including my presentation, focused on the challenges that SpaceX poses for the rest of the space industry and (more importantly) the wider telecom sector. In the background there’s the additional threat from the “missing pieces” that Musk highlighted during the SpaceX results call last week. That is widely recognized as SpaceX’s plan to acquire the rest of EchoStar in a share-based transaction, which would allow SpaceX to pick up the remnants of DISH Wireless network, along with the rest of EchoStar’s spectrum in the AWS-3 and CBRS bands, and save the cash outlay that would otherwise have been paid for the AWS-4 and Band 70 spectrum.
The benefit for EchoStar holders, and Charlie Ergen in particular, would be that a share-based transaction could be tax free, unlike the cash sales of spectrum. These direct negotiations with Charlie Ergen are the reasons that the tower companies have been so vocal in their recent results calls (for example about rights to abandoned equipment), and why we saw chatter about an 80,000 tower buildout last week (since a larger commitment by SpaceX could allow for a better price on the existing leases). And it would not be surprising if the deal was announced as soon as next week, given that mediation is scheduled through November 4, although Ergen is known for being a tough negotiator and might make it hard to reach an agreement on price.
But that’s mainly a telecom industry issue, and what was animating numerous people I spoke to yesterday, is the expectation that Amazon will soon announce the acquisition of Viasat, mainly for their international spectrum holdings, but also to combine Viasat’s Ka-band GEO business with Amazon Leo, and strengthen Amazon’s position in the government and aviation market (and incidentally remove Telesat’s biggest commercial customer for Lightspeed). Equatys would be abandoned as a satellite project, although Amazon would need to maintain a relationship with Space42 to coordinate access to the L-band spectrum in EMEA.
I’m also told AST has attempted to put together a rival bid, but that would require significant support from the telcos, and would be vehemently opposed by Viasat management. In contrast, selling Viasat to Amazon could be seen as a graceful exit, before Viasat’s current GEO business is overwhelmed by LEO competition.
In the D2D market, Amazon is seen as the most realistic potential savor by the telcos, as belief that AST will ever deliver a useful service ebbs away. The telco JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both Amazon and AST (since there’s no point in throwing AST under the bus at this point in time), although it remains to be seen how quickly Amazon would be able to bring a new D2D service to market (beyond Globalstar C3 which is presumably only going to work on iPhones) and how much capacity it would be able to provide in the US.
Clearly the FCC is also now taking the position that the entire LEO market will mostly just be a SpaceX vs Amazon fight, and yesterday approved Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar, removing one of the possible holdups to a deal. What that means for AST’s deal with Ligado remains to be seen, and an FCC decision on the SkyTerra Next plan might wait until clarity emerges on Amazon-Viasat.
And AST’s relationship with Ligado remains tense: Ligado does not benefit at all from the high valuations now being put on MSS spectrum, because AST pays Ligado just enough to cover the ongoing lease payments to Viasat. Thus Ligado’s only objective is to settle its litigation with the US government and walk away with a large amount of money (or more likely auction bidding credits), giving up its spectrum rights in exchange, which would leave AST in the lurch (and perhaps return more spectrum to Viasat).
