Comments on: Things to do in Denver when your deal’s dead… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/ Satellites, spectrum and other stuff Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:36:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: TMF Associates MSS blog » Playing three dimensional chess… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-1039 TMF Associates MSS blog » Playing three dimensional chess… Mon, 17 Dec 2012 17:11:35 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3765#comment-1039 [...] If so, the price may not be as attractive as many hope: if there are few other options then my earlier estimate of $0.30 to $0.40 per MHzPOP sounds closer to the mark than the inflated $1 per MHzPOP speculation we saw last week. Those [...] [...] If so, the price may not be as attractive as many hope: if there are few other options then my earlier estimate of $0.30 to $0.40 per MHzPOP sounds closer to the mark than the inflated $1 per MHzPOP speculation we saw last week. Those [...]

]]> By: TMF Associates MSS blog » No alphabet soup for you? https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-1010 TMF Associates MSS blog » No alphabet soup for you? Sat, 17 Nov 2012 19:53:00 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3765#comment-1010 [...] left to build out a new network of its own, as opposed to selling the spectrum to AT&T and pursuing a merger with DirecTV? There still appears to be uncertainty about the status of a potential deal with Clearwire, though [...] [...] left to build out a new network of its own, as opposed to selling the spectrum to AT&T and pursuing a merger with DirecTV? There still appears to be uncertainty about the status of a potential deal with Clearwire, though [...]

]]> By: timfarrar https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-1009 timfarrar Thu, 15 Nov 2012 02:36:07 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3765#comment-1009 My guess is that Ergen hoped he could get an earlier decision, in time to pre-empt the Sprint/Softbank deal. After all it appears Sprint was beating the bushes to find a deep pocketed backer and talked to others like Carlos Slim. Perhaps that was optimistic, but there was always only a narrow window of opportunity for a new entrant and its going to be harder to pull it off now than it was 2 months ago, before the TMO and Sprint deals. The WCS comp isn't direct - obviously AT&T could afford to pay more because it was only buying 50% of the spectrum and the rest was near free. On the other hand, the price is going to be rather less than the SpectrumCo AWS benchmark, given the existing ecosystem there and the lack of it in 2GHz. Also, the $0.30-$0.40/MHzPOP benchmark is one that's been used in other contemplated transactions for bands with no current ecosystem (at least that was the rumor when LightSquared was looking to monetize its 1670-75MHz spectrum earlier this year). $5B is less than Ergen would be looking for in a sale of the whole company, but if DISH gets leverage over DirecTV as well (think replacing DTV with DISH as AT&T's satellite TV partner) to engineer an attractve satellite TV merger price next year then it could still be a decent outcome. On the proposed interference limits, its quite likely that the lower 5MHz of DISH's uplink spectrum will be largely unusable if the H-block is going to be viable for high power operations (and worth $1B in an auction). In essence DISH is being moved without actually moving, possibly because of DoD concerns above 2025MHz (rather than the BAS issues DISH focused on in its submission, which are likely overblown). That may not make too much difference to the desirability of the spectrum to AT&T, but its another factor that potentially makes a standalone deployment more risky. My guess is that Ergen hoped he could get an earlier decision, in time to pre-empt the Sprint/Softbank deal. After all it appears Sprint was beating the bushes to find a deep pocketed backer and talked to others like Carlos Slim. Perhaps that was optimistic, but there was always only a narrow window of opportunity for a new entrant and its going to be harder to pull it off now than it was 2 months ago, before the TMO and Sprint deals.

The WCS comp isn’t direct – obviously AT&T could afford to pay more because it was only buying 50% of the spectrum and the rest was near free. On the other hand, the price is going to be rather less than the SpectrumCo AWS benchmark, given the existing ecosystem there and the lack of it in 2GHz. Also, the $0.30-$0.40/MHzPOP benchmark is one that’s been used in other contemplated transactions for bands with no current ecosystem (at least that was the rumor when LightSquared was looking to monetize its 1670-75MHz spectrum earlier this year). $5B is less than Ergen would be looking for in a sale of the whole company, but if DISH gets leverage over DirecTV as well (think replacing DTV with DISH as AT&T’s satellite TV partner) to engineer an attractve satellite TV merger price next year then it could still be a decent outcome.

On the proposed interference limits, its quite likely that the lower 5MHz of DISH’s uplink spectrum will be largely unusable if the H-block is going to be viable for high power operations (and worth $1B in an auction). In essence DISH is being moved without actually moving, possibly because of DoD concerns above 2025MHz (rather than the BAS issues DISH focused on in its submission, which are likely overblown). That may not make too much difference to the desirability of the spectrum to AT&T, but its another factor that potentially makes a standalone deployment more risky.

]]> By: clytle33 https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-1008 clytle33 Wed, 14 Nov 2012 19:50:59 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3765#comment-1008 Tim, Not sure why WCS spectrum is the right comp here assuming T was only buyer for this spectrum since they already owned a substantial part of the band. I would think S-band spectrum would be interesting to at least 3 of the 4 major existing players and potentially other outside players down the road. Also, it appears FCC has rejected Sprint proposal to shift DISH spectrum up and is trying to propose interference limits to protect H-band spectrum. What type of interference limits would jeopardize DISH plans to launch own wireless service or ability to flip spectrum to existing player? thanks Tim,

Not sure why WCS spectrum is the right comp here assuming T was only buyer for this spectrum since they already owned a substantial part of the band. I would think S-band spectrum would be interesting to at least 3 of the 4 major existing players and potentially other outside players down the road. Also, it appears FCC has rejected Sprint proposal to shift DISH spectrum up and is trying to propose interference limits to protect H-band spectrum. What type of interference limits would jeopardize DISH plans to launch own wireless service or ability to flip spectrum to existing player?

thanks

]]> By: sboZ https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/24/things-to-do-in-denver-when-your-deals-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-1007 sboZ Wed, 14 Nov 2012 04:59:43 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3765#comment-1007 Tim, Didn't Ergen know that he probably would not get a decision from the FCC regarding DISH's spectrum before the election? What do you think will happen to DISH's spectrum now that the election is over? What will happen to 1995-2000 MHz? Thanks Tim,

Didn’t Ergen know that he probably would not get a decision from the FCC regarding DISH’s spectrum before the election?

What do you think will happen to DISH’s spectrum now that the election is over? What will happen to 1995-2000 MHz?

Thanks

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