Comments on: The emperor has no clothes… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/ Satellites, spectrum and other stuff Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:36:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ultra HD | McAdams On https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-4050 Ultra HD | McAdams On Sat, 31 Aug 2013 00:38:49 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-4050 [...] There is increasing evidence that the explosion in data consumption by smartphones is a function of imaginary calculus. And new iDevices are seeming more and more like the old iDevices with the word “new??? in front [...]

]]> By: TMF Associates MSS blog » Let’s not talk about traffic growth… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-1240 TMF Associates MSS blog » Let’s not talk about traffic growth… Thu, 02 May 2013 19:11:30 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-1240 [...] shown in the chart above. That resulted in 2012 traffic growth coming at almost 70% compared to the 60% growth that would have resulted from a continuation of the trend seen in the first half of the year. The [...] [...] shown in the chart above. That resulted in 2012 traffic growth coming at almost 70% compared to the 60% growth that would have resulted from a continuation of the trend seen in the first half of the year. The [...]

]]> By: TMF Associates MSS blog » This year, next year, sometime, never… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-1076 TMF Associates MSS blog » This year, next year, sometime, never… Fri, 22 Feb 2013 17:51:50 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-1076 [...] As a result, the timeline for that sale (at least if Ergen is to get an attractive price) may be pretty long, probably beyond the resolution of the broadcast incentive auction (scheduled for 2014) and perhaps even extending until after the 2016 Presidential election, if AT&T and Verizon are to be regarded as serious bidders, given the desire of the FCC to let Sprint and T-Mobile catch-up with their bigger rivals. That is even more likely to be the case if the recent slowdown in the growth of wireless data traffic prompts a reassessment of operators’ future spectrum needs and finally buries the supposed “spectrum crunch”. [...] [...] As a result, the timeline for that sale (at least if Ergen is to get an attractive price) may be pretty long, probably beyond the resolution of the broadcast incentive auction (scheduled for 2014) and perhaps even extending until after the 2016 Presidential election, if AT&T and Verizon are to be regarded as serious bidders, given the desire of the FCC to let Sprint and T-Mobile catch-up with their bigger rivals. That is even more likely to be the case if the recent slowdown in the growth of wireless data traffic prompts a reassessment of operators’ future spectrum needs and finally buries the supposed “spectrum crunch”. [...]

]]> By: TMF Associates MSS blog » Cisco: castle deflated https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-1054 TMF Associates MSS blog » Cisco: castle deflated Wed, 06 Feb 2013 18:11:23 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-1054 [...] traffic in the US was estimated to have grown by only 62% (almost exactly as I predicted from the CTIA data last October) to 206,854 TB/mo in Dec 2012. However, in absolute terms Cisco’s number for the US appears [...] [...] traffic in the US was estimated to have grown by only 62% (almost exactly as I predicted from the CTIA data last October) to 206,854 TB/mo in Dec 2012. However, in absolute terms Cisco’s number for the US appears [...]

]]> By: Deloitte’s mobile-broadband spectrum policy primer « Steven J. Crowley, P.E. https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-987 Deloitte’s mobile-broadband spectrum policy primer « Steven J. Crowley, P.E. Mon, 15 Oct 2012 09:57:40 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-987 [...] Deloitte stumbles in the section on U.S. mobile broadband demand. It argues there is “exponential growth” in traffic, but the data cited do not exhibit exponential properties. Earlier this year, 4G Americas prepared a forecast, based on a global data forecast, suggesting that mobile data growth follows a logistic function more so than an exponential one. (In the same report, 4G Americas has also suggested mobile data growth could “saturate” in the year 2020.) Since the Deloitte report came out, CTIA has released data indicating a dramatic drop in U.S. traffic. [...] [...] Deloitte stumbles in the section on U.S. mobile broadband demand. It argues there is “exponential growth” in traffic, but the data cited do not exhibit exponential properties. Earlier this year, 4G Americas prepared a forecast, based on a global data forecast, suggesting that mobile data growth follows a logistic function more so than an exponential one. (In the same report, 4G Americas has also suggested mobile data growth could “saturate” in the year 2020.) Since the Deloitte report came out, CTIA has released data indicating a dramatic drop in U.S. traffic. [...]

]]> By: Spectrum Crunch? | Spectrum Omega https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-986 Spectrum Crunch? | Spectrum Omega Sat, 13 Oct 2012 20:40:36 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-986 [...] Tim Farrar pointed out that bandwidth demands aren’t increasing on a per-device basis (though as more people get smartphones, overall traffic continues to increase). To me it seems obvious this is a result of data caps, and given the performance I’ve had with my iPhone 5 so far it seems like the spectrum crunch is easing (I’ll reserve final judgment until after Christmas and the holidays to see how the LTE networks hold up). The telecoms are pushing hard on things like LTE-Adv, hetnets, microcells, and 40MHz LTE, but what good is all that coverage and 25Mb/s data speed all if you still have a 2GB or 3GB monthly cap for $30/mo? Or 10GB of data to share between 4 people for $120/mo? [...] [...] Tim Farrar pointed out that bandwidth demands aren’t increasing on a per-device basis (though as more people get smartphones, overall traffic continues to increase). To me it seems obvious this is a result of data caps, and given the performance I’ve had with my iPhone 5 so far it seems like the spectrum crunch is easing (I’ll reserve final judgment until after Christmas and the holidays to see how the LTE networks hold up). The telecoms are pushing hard on things like LTE-Adv, hetnets, microcells, and 40MHz LTE, but what good is all that coverage and 25Mb/s data speed all if you still have a 2GB or 3GB monthly cap for $30/mo? Or 10GB of data to share between 4 people for $120/mo? [...]

]]> By: timfarrar https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-985 timfarrar Sat, 13 Oct 2012 16:33:09 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-985 The flip answer is "because they could". But in reality what I think we're seeing in 2012H1 is probably in large part the consequence of the data caps - even when people don't hit the cap, they adjust their behavior, through more offloading to WiFi and limiting their on-network usage. Cisco's numbers supposedly exclude WiFi, although there is always the question of what to do with operator-owned WiFi like AT&T's hotspots. There is a modest discrepancy between Cisco and CTIA's 2011 numbers, but not that large. Cisco's forecasts are based on strong per device usage growth, and that appears to be what is missing in the 2012H1 actuals. The flip answer is “because they could”. But in reality what I think we’re seeing in 2012H1 is probably in large part the consequence of the data caps – even when people don’t hit the cap, they adjust their behavior, through more offloading to WiFi and limiting their on-network usage.

Cisco’s numbers supposedly exclude WiFi, although there is always the question of what to do with operator-owned WiFi like AT&T’s hotspots. There is a modest discrepancy between Cisco and CTIA’s 2011 numbers, but not that large. Cisco’s forecasts are based on strong per device usage growth, and that appears to be what is missing in the 2012H1 actuals.

]]> By: WiFiConnections https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/10/13/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/comment-page-1/#comment-984 WiFiConnections Sat, 13 Oct 2012 15:55:16 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3704#comment-984 So if the sky really isn't "falling", why did the major wireless operators impose data caps? It would be interesting if Wi-Fi use could be properly calculated and included in total data traffic. It wouldn't account for the missing 50% from Cisco's estimate, would it? Dale Buckey Twitter.com/WiFiConnections WiFi-Connections.com So if the sky really isn’t “falling”, why did the major wireless operators impose data caps?

It would be interesting if Wi-Fi use could be properly calculated and included in total data traffic. It wouldn’t account for the missing 50% from Cisco’s estimate, would it?

Dale Buckey
Twitter.com/WiFiConnections
WiFi-Connections.com

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