Comments on: The spectrum bubble, one year on… https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/10/11/the-spectrum-bubble-one-year-on/ Satellites, spectrum and other stuff Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:36:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: jritz https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/10/11/the-spectrum-bubble-one-year-on/comment-page-1/#comment-691 jritz Wed, 12 Oct 2011 13:21:19 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=2567#comment-691 You are a little off on the bond prices. The 1st lien notes are $76-77 after moving up yesterday afternoon to the lower $70s and this morning to current levels. As far as I know the 1st liens have not gotten as low as $50. During the Sprint call they were briefly in the mid $60s but settled at about $69-$70 on Friday. 2nd lien are $44.5-$47. Not sure on the converts. You are a little off on the bond prices. The 1st lien notes are $76-77 after moving up yesterday afternoon to the lower $70s and this morning to current levels. As far as I know the 1st liens have not gotten as low as $50. During the Sprint call they were briefly in the mid $60s but settled at about $69-$70 on Friday. 2nd lien are $44.5-$47. Not sure on the converts.

]]> By: timfarrar https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/10/11/the-spectrum-bubble-one-year-on/comment-page-1/#comment-690 timfarrar Wed, 12 Oct 2011 03:39:00 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=2567#comment-690 My point is that Clearwire's bonds are trading so far below par that it seems to confirm that investors do not expect anyone to be prepared to pay a premium to acquire this spectrum. Certainly SpectrumCo's AWS block is more desirable, simply because AWS is already in use and embedded in many devices (at least those made for T-Mobile, though not the iPhone). However, even there the cable companies don't appear to have received a compelling offer to buy their spectrum, and haven't reached any agreement to inject it into Sprint. With respect to DISH, if the FCC was looking for a quick win, then it might have been prepared to grant the waiver, but with the LightSquared debacle (which will prompt Congressional questions over their spectrum "windfall" from the waiver) and the pending incentive auction bill (which may impose spectrum fees on non-auctioned spectrum, and thereby potentially force DISH to give up half the spectrum in exchange for the terrestrial waiver), I suspect the FCC will now be reluctant to act quickly. All in all, this suggests that (as I predicted last year) speculating in spectrum is not likely to be a great investment, and its not just LightSquared that's turning out to be far more risky than most people expected. My point is that Clearwire’s bonds are trading so far below par that it seems to confirm that investors do not expect anyone to be prepared to pay a premium to acquire this spectrum.

Certainly SpectrumCo’s AWS block is more desirable, simply because AWS is already in use and embedded in many devices (at least those made for T-Mobile, though not the iPhone). However, even there the cable companies don’t appear to have received a compelling offer to buy their spectrum, and haven’t reached any agreement to inject it into Sprint.

With respect to DISH, if the FCC was looking for a quick win, then it might have been prepared to grant the waiver, but with the LightSquared debacle (which will prompt Congressional questions over their spectrum “windfall” from the waiver) and the pending incentive auction bill (which may impose spectrum fees on non-auctioned spectrum, and thereby potentially force DISH to give up half the spectrum in exchange for the terrestrial waiver), I suspect the FCC will now be reluctant to act quickly.

All in all, this suggests that (as I predicted last year) speculating in spectrum is not likely to be a great investment, and its not just LightSquared that’s turning out to be far more risky than most people expected.

]]> By: tmfsite https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/10/11/the-spectrum-bubble-one-year-on/comment-page-1/#comment-689 tmfsite Wed, 12 Oct 2011 03:07:43 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=2567#comment-689 you lost me on this one. So is it only the customers that have value? If spectrum has no value (other than SpectrumCo's of course - theirs is really valuable. Its the spectrum that everyone digs.) , then Charlie will get a free waiver because there is no better use for that spectrum. Contiguous spectrum even if it is a combination of leased and owned that sits in the TDD band in the Qualcomm 8960 chip will be quite useful in the near future. You clearly have a thought or agenda in here somewhere you lost me on this one. So is it only the customers that have value? If spectrum has no value (other than SpectrumCo’s of course – theirs is really valuable. Its the spectrum that everyone digs.) , then Charlie will get a free waiver because there is no better use for that spectrum.

Contiguous spectrum even if it is a combination of leased and owned that sits in the TDD band in the Qualcomm 8960 chip will be quite useful in the near future.
You clearly have a thought or agenda in here somewhere

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