Comments for TMF Associates MSS blog http://tmfassociates.com/blog Developments in the mobile satellite industry Tue, 15 May 2012 16:07:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Comment on Up, down, spin around? by LightSquared Bankruptcy Triggers DISH Spectrum Purchase Speculation Telecompetitor http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-897 LightSquared Bankruptcy Triggers DISH Spectrum Purchase Speculation Telecompetitor Tue, 15 May 2012 16:07:00 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-897 [...] idea of how DISH might use the spectrum apparently originated in a blog post penned by Tim Farrar, a satellite broadband analyst with TMF [...] [...] idea of how DISH might use the spectrum apparently originated in a blog post penned by Tim Farrar, a satellite broadband analyst with TMF [...]

]]> Comment on LightSquared and the FCC’s $10B problem by Another one bites the dust « THE FIRST STREET JOURNAL. http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/09/20/lightsquared-and-the-fccs-10b-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-895 Another one bites the dust « THE FIRST STREET JOURNAL. Tue, 15 May 2012 01:42:48 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=2455#comment-895 [...] more at the link. The Telecom, Media and Finance Associates, Inc. blog noted: Once this $10B windfall is more widely recognized, I think it is going to represent an [...] [...] more at the link. The Telecom, Media and Finance Associates, Inc. blog noted: Once this $10B windfall is more widely recognized, I think it is going to represent an [...]

]]> Comment on Up, down, spin around? by It’s official: LightSquared goes bankrupt — Broadband News and Analysis http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-893 It’s official: LightSquared goes bankrupt — Broadband News and Analysis Mon, 14 May 2012 19:22:58 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-893 [...] may be one exception. As TMF analyst Tim Farrar postulated in his blog, Dish Network might have a way of cleaning up LightSquared’s spectrum. Dish owns S-band satellite [...] [...] may be one exception. As TMF analyst Tim Farrar postulated in his blog, Dish Network might have a way of cleaning up LightSquared’s spectrum. Dish owns S-band satellite [...]

]]> Comment on Up, down, spin around? by Deal or die time for LightSquared; Will Dish swoop in? | TechDiem.com http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-884 Deal or die time for LightSquared; Will Dish swoop in? | TechDiem.com Sun, 13 May 2012 23:31:05 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-884 [...] little, but satellite broadband analyst Tim Farrar thinks there may be one interested party: Dish. In his blog, Farrar wrote that Dish might seek to pair its own S-band satellite frequencies with [...] [...] little, but satellite broadband analyst Tim Farrar thinks there may be one interested party: Dish. In his blog, Farrar wrote that Dish might seek to pair its own S-band satellite frequencies with [...]

]]> Comment on Up, down, spin around? by Deal or die time for LightSquared; Will Dish swoop in? — Broadband News and Analysis http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-881 Deal or die time for LightSquared; Will Dish swoop in? — Broadband News and Analysis Sun, 13 May 2012 22:11:20 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-881 [...] little, but satellite broadband analyst Tim Farrar thinks there may be one interested party: Dish. In his blog, Farrar wrote that Dish might seek to pair its own S-band satellite frequencies with [...] [...] little, but satellite broadband analyst Tim Farrar thinks there may be one interested party: Dish. In his blog, Farrar wrote that Dish might seek to pair its own S-band satellite frequencies with [...]

]]> Comment on TerreStar Corpse… by timfarrar http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/08/terrestar-corpse/comment-page-1/#comment-880 timfarrar Sat, 12 May 2012 03:14:22 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3383#comment-880 In a word, no. What DISH is looking for is a partner with money and customers. Clearwire has neither (or at least the vast majority of the customers it does have belong to Sprint). Realistically, he could sell to AT&T, as many (<a href="http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2011/12/13/the-inevitable-next-step-for-att/" rel="nofollow">including myself</a>) have speculated, or he could partner with another player with money and customers. Sprint's expectations seem to be that partners will bring money (a la LightSquared) not get it. Verizon has its own plans. Leap has no money. So amongst existing operators most likely we are left with just T-Mobile or MetroPCS. It might not be unreasonable to view talk of mergers (both TMO-MetroPCS and AT&T-Leap) as part of the negotiating battle with DISH. Then beyond facilities based wireless operators you have possibilities like DirecTV or America Movil or perhaps another foreign wireless operator, but probably not Apple or Google (because as many have said, they would alienate existing partners by getting into bed with a new entrant, whether LightSquared or DISH). This is really a game of poker and bluff about who holds the stronger hand - just look at <a href="http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/01/27/complicated-legal-arguments-and-simple-math/" rel="nofollow">AT&T's filings with respect to DISH's waiver application</a>. In a word, no. What DISH is looking for is a partner with money and customers. Clearwire has neither (or at least the vast majority of the customers it does have belong to Sprint). Realistically, he could sell to AT&T, as many (including myself) have speculated, or he could partner with another player with money and customers.

Sprint’s expectations seem to be that partners will bring money (a la LightSquared) not get it. Verizon has its own plans. Leap has no money. So amongst existing operators most likely we are left with just T-Mobile or MetroPCS. It might not be unreasonable to view talk of mergers (both TMO-MetroPCS and AT&T-Leap) as part of the negotiating battle with DISH.

Then beyond facilities based wireless operators you have possibilities like DirecTV or America Movil or perhaps another foreign wireless operator, but probably not Apple or Google (because as many have said, they would alienate existing partners by getting into bed with a new entrant, whether LightSquared or DISH).

This is really a game of poker and bluff about who holds the stronger hand – just look at AT&T’s filings with respect to DISH’s waiver application.

]]> Comment on TerreStar Corpse… by SammyBoy http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/08/terrestar-corpse/comment-page-1/#comment-879 SammyBoy Sat, 12 May 2012 01:01:25 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3383#comment-879 Any chance Clearwire and Dish get together in a network sharing agreement? Ergen has publicly stated he has no desire to build a network nor divest the 2-2.2GHz spectrum for a quick flip. He needs towers to host his network, so making a play for Lightsquared doesn't make any sense. He doesn't really need the extra L-band spectrum nor does he want to get into the hornet's nest that is GPS intereference. So with whom does he partner? Given that McCaw and Ergen have somewhat of a connection through DBSD/ICO, and given that McCaw was essentially in the same position over a decade ago trying to utilize satellite spectrum for terrestrial purposes, would it be a logical fit? Any chance Clearwire and Dish get together in a network sharing agreement? Ergen has publicly stated he has no desire to build a network nor divest the 2-2.2GHz spectrum for a quick flip. He needs towers to host his network, so making a play for Lightsquared doesn’t make any sense. He doesn’t really need the extra L-band spectrum nor does he want to get into the hornet’s nest that is GPS intereference. So with whom does he partner? Given that McCaw and Ergen have somewhat of a connection through DBSD/ICO, and given that McCaw was essentially in the same position over a decade ago trying to utilize satellite spectrum for terrestrial purposes, would it be a logical fit?

]]> Comment on Up, down, spin around? by timfarrar http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-878 timfarrar Fri, 11 May 2012 15:43:46 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-878 Ergen and the FCC are already intending to convert the 2GHz MSS band to terrestrial, because there is little to no value in being a new entrant satellite service provider, in a small, highly competitive market. There is no 2GHz usage to "consolidate" into the L-band, and there is no rationale for moving Big LEO band users (the Big LEO uplinks are close enough to GPS to still cause problems, and if you want to use the S-band downlinks you can go ask Globalstar: any barriers to use of that spectrum are nothing whatsoever to do with Globalstar's existing satellite users). Fundamentally it would be pointless to spend $1B+ to buy LightSquared simply to offer satellite service. Ergen and the FCC are already intending to convert the 2GHz MSS band to terrestrial, because there is little to no value in being a new entrant satellite service provider, in a small, highly competitive market. There is no 2GHz usage to “consolidate” into the L-band, and there is no rationale for moving Big LEO band users (the Big LEO uplinks are close enough to GPS to still cause problems, and if you want to use the S-band downlinks you can go ask Globalstar: any barriers to use of that spectrum are nothing whatsoever to do with Globalstar’s existing satellite users). Fundamentally it would be pointless to spend $1B+ to buy LightSquared simply to offer satellite service.

]]> Comment on Up, down, spin around? by Argo4288 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/10/up-down-spin-around/comment-page-1/#comment-877 Argo4288 Fri, 11 May 2012 12:12:30 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3392#comment-877 What about the possibility that Ergen wants the LightSquared spectrum so that he can consolidate satellite uses in other bands into the L-band and then convert that other satellite spectrum into terrestrial spectrum? Ergen is smart enough to know that DoD and DoT won't allow any terrestrial uses in the L-band in the foreseeable future. Perhaps he sees LightSquared as an opportunity to buy satellite spectrum on the cheap and clear out other satellite bands. What about the possibility that Ergen wants the LightSquared spectrum so that he can consolidate satellite uses in other bands into the L-band and then convert that other satellite spectrum into terrestrial spectrum? Ergen is smart enough to know that DoD and DoT won’t allow any terrestrial uses in the L-band in the foreseeable future. Perhaps he sees LightSquared as an opportunity to buy satellite spectrum on the cheap and clear out other satellite bands.

]]> Comment on TerreStar Corpse… by TMF Associates MSS blog » Up, down, spin around? http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2012/05/08/terrestar-corpse/comment-page-1/#comment-876 TMF Associates MSS blog » Up, down, spin around? Fri, 11 May 2012 02:50:40 +0000 http://tmfassociates.com/blog/?p=3383#comment-876 [...] day in the world of LightSquared, where it appears nothing is ever as it seems! First of all, a comment yesterday on my last blog post gave some hints as to a completely different way to think about why Charlie Ergen might be [...] [...] day in the world of LightSquared, where it appears nothing is ever as it seems! First of all, a comment yesterday on my last blog post gave some hints as to a completely different way to think about why Charlie Ergen might be [...]

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