Today the H-block auction finally came to a close, after taking longer than many expected to reach the reserve price of $1.564B. Its clear that DISH won virtually all of the licenses, since it was able to select a sequence of bids to exactly match the reserve price.
However, DISH has also faced unexpectedly prolonged opposition from one other bidder who kept bidding on one or two small licenses (and switching around to find the relatively cheaper licenses) for several days in an attempt to secure a license that DISH might buy out later on. The competitor seems to have had only about 60,000 bidding units of eligibility yesterday and more than likely ended up winning one or two small licenses for a couple of million dollars total (a price of about $0.30 per MHzPOP). Stopping at the reserve price and being prepared to buy out the competitor later on (for say $10M-$20M) certainly made more sense for DISH than continuing to play Whac-a-Mole and bidding up licenses across the board to win all of the licenses at a much higher price.
So now the question is whether we will see DISH announce some sort of deal to put its spectrum to use in the near future. Ergen has ruled out bidding against Sprint for T-Mobile, but that doesn’t mean DISH wouldn’t oppose such a bid at the FCC and DoJ. Indeed, if Sprint decided to pay T-Mobile a break fee mainly in spectrum, which would almost certainly be in the 2.5GHz Clearwire band, DISH would have a big incentive to try and block Sprint’s bid before later engineering a lower priced deal with T-Mobile. On the other hand, DISH’s H-block win now gives Sprint more incentive to include DISH in any deal with T-Mobile (most likely joining with DISH to roll out a competitive fixed broadband wireless solution using DISH’s satellite TV antennas while perhaps leasing the H-block from DISH).
However, if DISH is left out in the cold by Sprint, Ergen could eventually turn his attention to a merger with DirecTV. Some thought that the asset swap between DISH and EchoStar that was announced last week was intended to “pave the way for a merger with DirecTV”. However, I think that misunderstands what the next move is going to be and that this deal was intended to set EchoStar not DISH up for a near term transaction, by giving it more satellites plus a guaranteed (and incentivized) satellite broadband customer for the next 10 years, while removing some of the risk associated with consumer retail sales (which is less attractive to an FSS operator). That deal is highly likely to be with Telesat and/or Loral, which recently was reported to be up for sale and has been looked at by Ergen in the past. In contrast, any deal with DirecTV is more likely to be months away.
In addition to all of this action for DISH and Echostar, Ergen was also basically told by the judge in the LightSquared bankruptcy case on that he (i.e. SPSO) needs to come up with an alternative plan for LightSquared before the confirmation hearing on March 17, because she is “not going to say today ‘lights out on this company’” by rejecting the current plan from the company, even though SPSO has “strong” arguments that the plan is infeasible.
So now we appear poised to see one or more transactions from DISH, EchoStar and/or SPSO in the next few weeks. I would estimate that the probability of a LightSquared offer from SPSO is at least 90%, and the likelihood of a Telesat/Loral deal with EchoStar is perhaps 60%-70%, but the chance of a (much more significant) Sprint deal with DISH is no more than 30%. Nevertheless, that will still be plenty to keep Charlie busy for the time being.